Steadier, not higher.
A validated shadow simulation across five carry books — every figure windowed and shown with its caveats, for orientation only. On paper today: no live capital, no exchange connection.
Validated out-of-sample over 885 days on a pre-registered grid (H2). Net base rate, shown for orientation only — past simulated performance is not a guide to future results. Live returns begin only after the FCA gate.
Net equity, on paper.
885-day shadow window
Every month, on the record.
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’25 | .7 | .9 | -.2 | 1.1 | .8 | .4 | 1.0 | .6 | -.3 | .9 | 1.2 | .5 |
| ’26 | .8 | 1.0 | .3 | .7 | .9 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Monthly figures are orientation only, small by design — the engine targets consistency, not spikes.
By allocation.
Illustrative target weights across the five books.
Growth of £10,000.
Against a global equity tracker, a typical managed fund, a cash ISA and a high-street bank — over the shadow-record window. A different shape of return, not a bigger one.
| Where you could put £10k | Return p.a. | Volatility | Worst drop | Max in / yr | Your capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onyx (paper) | ~9–13%/yr net | Low (sim) | 1.3% | Illustrative | Capital at risk |
| Global-equity ISA | ~7%/yr (hist.) | High | −35%+ | £20,000 | Capital at risk |
| Managed fund | ~4%/yr (hist.) | Medium | −20%+ | Varies | Capital at risk |
| Cash ISA | ~3%/yr | None | 0% | £20,000 | FSCS to £85k |
| High-street bank | ~1%/yr | None | 0% | No cap | FSCS to £85k |
A global tracker can end ahead over a window like this — but with far deeper drops along the way, and it shelters only £20k a year; a high-street bank pays a fraction. Onyx aims for the smooth line — but your capital is at risk and isn’t FSCS-protected. Different risk — funding-market risk, not stock-market risk — not no risk.
What this doesn’t show.
Shadow, not live. Simulated capital on live prices; the funded, audited track opens only after the live gates.
Finite capacity. Carry thins as size grows, so the per-member cap and seats are limited — the sleeve to 50.
Regime-dependent. In long flat or negative-carry stretches, returns compress toward cash.
Risk changes shape. Exchange, counterparty, execution and tail/liquidation risk remain — even hedged of market direction.
Not tax-sheltered. Gains are taxable (CGT) and not FSCS-protected — unlike an ISA or cash in a bank.
Illustrative peers. Comparator figures are representative over the same window — not live quotes, advice or an offer.
Validated simulation, shown for orientation only — not a promised or guaranteed return. Everything here is PAPER: no live capital, no exchange connection. Capital is at risk.
Full validated figures, methodology and documents — on request.
Risk warning: crypto carry strategies carry risk and your capital is at risk. Onyx is a non-custodial automation service for certified sophisticated & professional investors — not a fund, not a deposit, not FSCS-protected, and not investment advice. Figures are a validated out-of-sample simulation and shadow record, shown for orientation only — never a promised return (§V5-6.3). Past simulated performance is not a guide to future results. © Onyx.